Beijing, October 15 (Reporter Feng Fang) On October 14, the People's Bank of China released relevant financial data for the first three quarters. The data shows that in the first three quarters, the increase in RMB loans was 16.02 trillion yuan, of which medium and long-term loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 9.66 trillion yuan; the total increase in social financing scale for the first three quarters was 25.66 trillion yuan, of which RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 15.39 trillion yuan.

Experts interviewed pointed out that under the influence of multiple factors such as the high base effect, "squeezing out water" in financial data, and the transformation of economic structure, financial policies have strongly and effectively supported the stabilization and improvement of the real economy. In the future, with the new round of "combination punch" of stable growth policies taking effect, the business production and operation prosperity of enterprises is expected to further rebound, and the growth momentum of the macro economy will be further enhanced.

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At the end of September, M2 increased by 6.8% year-on-year

The growth rate of the total amount of money tends to stabilize and rebound

Since the beginning of this year, the People's Bank of China has adhered to a supportive monetary policy stance and policy orientation, comprehensively using a variety of monetary policy tools such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and guiding the downward movement of loan market quotation rates to create a good monetary and financial environment. In terms of total volume, at the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 309.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.

"The recent introduction and implementation of a package of incremental policies have provided strong support for the recovery of market confidence, especially the reflow of wealth management funds to deposits, which has supported the growth of the total amount of money," said Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China United, to reporters from China National Radio. From the perspective of money supply, at the end of September, the M2 balance increased by 6.8% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the year-on-year growth rate of the M2 balance at the end of September tends to stabilize and rebound, mainly for two reasons: on the one hand, the recent introduction and implementation of a package of incremental policies have greatly boosted the confidence of the capital market. The hot stock market at the end of September has prompted wealth management funds to flow back to deposits, and the increase in securities customer margin has driven the increase in non-bank deposits, thereby driving the rebound of M2. On the other hand, on September 27, the People's Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market, which also supported the growth of the total amount of money and helped to boost M2.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Orient Gold Credit, mentioned that the decline in the growth rate base of the same period last year also has a certain promoting effect on the year-on-year growth rate of M2 at the end of September this year. He pointed out that according to the fiscal incremental policy arrangements, the issuance of government bonds is expected to reach a peak again in the fourth quarter, and the increase in social financing scale will also recover to a year-on-year increase, which will drive a more significant rebound in the growth rates of M2 and narrow money (M1).

In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 16.02 trillion yuan

Strongly support major strategies, key areas, and weak linksAs financial support for the real economy continues to deepen and solidify, monetary policy is also continuously optimizing in structure. This year, the People's Bank of China has focused on key links in high-quality development, creating structural monetary policy tools such as re-lending for scientific and technological innovation and technical transformation, and re-lending for affordable housing, guiding financial resources to flow into key areas and weak links, and increasing financial support for scientific and technological innovation and equipment updates and transformations, with a focus on promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.

Data shows that at the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 253.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%; in the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 16.02 trillion yuan, of which household loans increased by 1.94 trillion yuan, and loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. In terms of social financing scale, in the first three quarters, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 15.39 trillion yuan, and at the end of September, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 250.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, accounting for 62.4% of the stock of social financing scale during the same period.

Dong Ximiao told reporters: "From the perspective of credit structure,普惠 small and micro loans, medium and long-term loans for manufacturing, and loans to 'specialized, refined, and innovative' enterprises at the end of September were all significantly higher than the growth rate of general loans. The credit structure continues to optimize, and the financial support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links continues to strengthen."

Wen Bin pointed out that under the seasonal effect, the new credit in September improved significantly month-on-month. Coupled with the introduction of a package of policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, stabilizing the real estate market, boosting the capital market, and promoting investment and consumption since late September, the policy tone has shifted, and counter-cyclical adjustments have been intensified, providing a certain support for the stability of credit growth. At the same time, with the full implementation of policies, the manufacturing PMI in September rebounded to the highest level since May, domestic demand has shown signs of stabilization, and the economic prosperity has improved, which will drive the corresponding repair of credit demand.

The combined effect of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is evident, and financing costs continue to decrease.

Recently, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of major financial policies, which not only strengthen support for the development of the real economy in terms of total amount and structure but also continue to drive down comprehensive financing costs.

On September 27, the People's Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points and adjusted the 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate in the open market from the previous 1.70% to 1.50%, leading to a 30 basis point decrease in the medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate and guiding the loan market报价 interest rate (LPR) to move lower.

Dong Ximiao said that since this year, the prudent monetary policy has been precise and powerful, with multiple reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts being strong and fast, producing a combined effect that has strongly boosted market confidence and expectations, and better promoted economic recovery and rebound. The decline in LPR will promote further decreases in loan interest rates for enterprises and individuals, helping to reduce the financing costs of operating entities and stimulate effective financing demand. Currently, commercial banks are accelerating the batch adjustment of existing mortgage loan interest rates. Financial policies work in conjunction with fiscal policies and employment policies that have been introduced, forming a combined effect, which will strongly promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.

Wen Bin said that from the financial data, the growth rate of credit and social financing scale in September has generally remained within a reasonable range, indicating that finance has effectively met the financing needs of the real economy and strongly supported the stabilization and improvement of the real economy. Wen Bin believes that looking ahead, under the drive of a new round of stable growth policy "combination punches", infrastructure and manufacturing investment in the fourth quarter is expected to maintain a certain intensity, real estate sales will gradually stop falling and stabilize, driving the prosperity of enterprise production and operation to rebound, and further enhancing the momentum of macroeconomic growth.