October 16th International Gold Market Trend Analysis

I. Analysis and Summary of Yesterday's Market

The international gold market opened at 2648 yesterday and closed with a moderate increase to 2662. The market began with a continuous downward probe, giving the impression that it was about to head south. Fortunately, the subsequent market experienced a decent decline. Although we didn't manage to close our positions at noon, at least it did not reverse to the entry level before closing. The market trend since the afternoon has been more northward, and we observed two waves first. We couldn't resist making a short position amidst the continuous bearish signals, but fortunately, the stop loss was not significant.

II. News and Current Affairs Sharing

International News:

1. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its oil demand forecast for this year.

2. The three major institutions of the European Union call for the acceleration of the implementation of the T+1 settlement cycle.

3. ASML has released its Q3 financial report earlier than expected, which did not meet expectations, causing a collapse in US chip stocks.

4. Apple's stock price reached an all-time intraday high, with a market capitalization that once reached $3.61 trillion.

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5. Canada's inflation slowed down more than expected, and the market increased its bets on the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates by 50 basis points significantly.7. Fed's Daly: 3% might be a good guess for a neutral interest rate, with one to two more rate cuts expected this year.

According to the CME "FedWatch," there is a 90.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points by November. This probability has slightly increased compared to the previous days. Combining this with the recent pace of gold holdings in the world's largest gold ETF, almost all the news is positive. Does this mean that the gold market is really going to rise mindlessly? I don't think so. The current gold market generally gives people the feeling that there is a continuous momentum, and it just can't fall. At this time, the bearish sentiment is almost collapsing. I suggest that everyone should not give up easily. The more this kind of continuous raising of your bullish sentiment, the more it is the time to short. The expectation of subsequent rate cuts has decreased a lot compared to the beginning of the rate cuts. That is to say, everyone's bearish wishes should at least hold on until the rate cut on November 8th.

III. Today's International Gold Market Trend Analysis

Today's international gold market idea: Although the bulls in the international gold market have been very strong in the short term in the past two days, it is only short-term. At least until now, there has not been an endless rise. Since we have found this rule, we should treat it as a shock market. Today, we should wait for a price close to the recent new high to try shorting. I have a hunch that a big pullback before the next interest rate decision is coming, and it is important to participate in seizing opportunities. Next, please see today's indicator analysis: At this time, the trading volume has started to increase, providing a good momentum for the gold market to rise. The current trading volume is not as strong as before, but such a strong rhythm can stimulate people's desire to chase more; in the MACD indicator, there was a false signal of a death cross halfway, and it can be seen that the trend of the fast and slow lines has reversed again and even continued parallel. This indicates that the subsequent upward momentum will continue; in the RSI indicator, the supply and demand curve is about to reach the overbought area, and the probability of a price pullback in the current gold market has greatly increased. Therefore, our strategy for today is:

International gold hang 2668 to short the first target 2650, the second target 2634, and the stop-loss point is 2674.